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California Love


Hey David cluff apologized for the audio. I'm just walking out of the NBC studios after some postgame debate analysis. What matters most in terms of the debate? We just witnessed last. Night is obviously what the voters in Nevada and then in South Carolina and all who are currently voting earlier by mail and Super Tuesday states thing so I think we should be careful about Offering interpretations when we're going to get some evidence soon. You know but my top line thoughts where I think. People understood the stakes of the debate. So you saw people come out much more aggressive than I think. Most of them had been in previous debates. I think Elizabeth Warren had a very very strong night. A man. I think probably shot in the arm financially. You know I thought Bernie. Sanders was consistent as he always is. And that's one of his real gifts in this campaign in debating. Joe Biden had one of his strongest debates was much more focused. I think Buddha judge which are also had their moments. Interestingly they sort of went after each other and they're being the aggressor there but I think what you see there. Is these debates now. Aren't simply about who did well. The directly connected to your pathway to the nomination or lack thereof and so mayor Pete I think clearly seeing club Char's someone who is Cannibalizing or at least competing for some votes he thinks might be his. You saw them all pile Bloomberg. I think we saw Mike Bloomberg paying the price for this being as I debate and You know all these candidates have gotten better with practice. And it's hard to go up there cold so I thought he had a better second half in the first half. But you know we'll see ultimately whether his money and advertising a make support debate performance moot But certainly probably something that's not GonNa continues on them so you know it was related to bay. We'll see as I said you know how the Ray shakes out particularly relates to voting And see if we see polling and then actual the votes. We'll see some in Nevada Saturday. Hopefully if they get counted and then a week from then in South Carolina but again this is not about. You know figure skating judges or diving judges giving you a score. It's did you somehow improve your chances to be the nominee and I think a lot of that is based on folks needing to figure out from a positioning standpoint. Who are they in competition with votes And so I think if you're Bernie Sanders you quite happy. Biden had some dustups Hyun Bloomberg hasn't desktops but for the most part. Bloomberg seemed to take a lot of the fire. You saw Elizabeth. Warren I think being aggressive with the entire field To try and give her candidacy a boost that's needed And then you saw which are and Buddha judge but I think sanders who is the undeniable front runner. At this point. You know leaves the debate stage relatively unscathed? The other thing. I'd say is is the question that Chuck Todd asked about. Should the person has the most delegates even if it's on a majority be the nominee Bernie Sanders maybe not surprisingly said yes and they all said no the rest of them and I think what that means is a lot of them probably think sanders is GonNa get the most delegates and they wanNA preserve the ability to go to the convention and maybe went on a subsequent ballot. I personally believe that's a very very unlikely strategy. I think having party insiders the super delegates come in and give the nomination as someone who did not have the most delegates I think is something that would be terribly damaging to the Party so I think that bears a lot of scrutiny in the coming weeks because some candidates who might look like they had no chance of getting anywhere near the delegate lead may stay in simply because they wanna bring delegates to Milwaukee so I think that answer to that question I think was pretty revealing. And we're going to learn a lot about the strategies in the coming weeks as we see decisions. Candidates are making are not making so We have another debate next week. Most importantly Nevada caucuses on Saturday. And we'll jump into now our discussion with our guest. E Smith about all things California as Smith. Thank you so much for joining us. It's a great honor. Thank you so California has moved up It's primary and it looks like it's going to be even more important than the architects of that move might have thought so. Let's start with just some basics. California has four hundred and fifteen hundred sixteen pledged delegates. Absolutely right. It has Well three hundred seventy which makes up since we have much smaller pool. It made up twenty sixteen nine point three percent of the total of makes up ten and a half percent. So it's huge so it's it's a massive amount of delegates We won't even talk about the super delegates so I'm talking to you On Tuesday February nineteenth and a ton of people voted. So what would you estimate? The percentage of people who voted in California by the timeless as the South Carolina primary happens on February twenty-ninth what percentage of the electorate We'll have already voted. Probably forty percent forty percent. So for instance if you are let's say if you are clocking in around ten percent and forty percents vote is just doing the reductive math. You better be able to go twenty percent or so. The rest of the way to get viable vibrating minute. So what that means is for candidates right now. the momentum that you've either gained or lost you're paying appraiser you're benefiting from at the ballot so the notion that you just like let's say somebody pulls off a big win in South Carolina. They won't be able to get the full value of that as relates to the California primary true true and is one of the completely misunderstood things by California weather gradings. California's essentially we have twenty nine days to vote. So you can. If you feel programs for instance it's such a large state. It's almost impossible. Do it all in one day but if you break it up in two thousand nine days. It's actually field is actually very doable. But the the flip side is if you let too much much water. Go under the bridge. It's really hard to change things right. So obviously have Bloomberg who's Any idea gets funded. Good or bad But if you were in a scenario where you had a healthy budget but not a historical budget. What are the types of things you'd WANNA do? An presidential primary that. What kind of campaign would you run to run here in California to maximize your vote share? You have to run a radically different campaign in California than anywhere else. And that's frankly when the big mistakes I see people make again again coming to California. You don't do it with clipboards endure knocking. That's beautiful staff and we we love. It's part of our politics but that works in local races here in order to move stuff a point or two or three you talking about moving high hundreds of thousands if not over a million people and so and you just don't do that unless you have some extraordinary amount of money by door knocking in canvas and the all the traditional things you have to get into a much more mass audience And and you have to communicate and do field anyway. That's just kind of mass production. Was that mean you have to have the capacity and you probably won't have volunteers but you probably have to probably do it. Patch in paid volunteers. But you have to capacity to do massive sweeps in. Id's so that you can figure out who your voters are who potential voters are apply in lyrics to it and then essentially figure out who those people are and then the beautiful thing is. You've got twenty nine days for them to vote and so you can talk to those folks and almost check them off the list. But it's his long arduous process. And you if you're not doing volume you're making yourself feel good but you're not doing anything worthwhile so you'd also be doing persuasion advertising digital TV radio super expensive though five million bucks a week minimum five million week and given the size of the state how important can candidate visits. Be Tremendously important you you and I know that from two thousand eight You you were doing President Obama's campaign I was here State Director for Hillary Clinton both those campaigns. I really think it's kind of the model You have to come to California to fundraise anyway and so both. Those campaigns did a huge amount of press. And it really did make a difference. And that's the other thing unique about these presidential campaigns. Is You can do all the press you want in these local races. And maybe he'll get it. This is something that people are actually paying attention to their seeking information. So at whatever you can do in common old versus ice called free press but Communications and getting the news and getting those streams is incredibly important and the things that changed radically in my lifetime is all news. Kind of use to kind of emanate like the bottom people's News pyramid was local and state news. And it's completely flipped. It's now national and international news. And so it's not like you're trying to grab people and get their attention. This is what they're focused on so there's tremendous opportunity there right right. Let's talk about that resume. Little bit connected to our discussion with Israeli vote period. So you know our view and maybe our data was not one hundred percent accurate as we close pretty well. We thought we did relatively one election day But from a raw vote standpoint Lost you know by a decent margin here And I think Hillary netted thirty five or so more delegates So so in the early vote period back in. Oh wait what were you doing? To mitigate against the momentum that we ultimately got wasn't enough for us to get over the Hump here but L. Maybe you know Bernie Sanders. I is not going to get north of fifty. But he's in the lead now Probably having run once before he benefits from understanding California low better. So what are the types of things are front runners doing to just make sure your your banking so You might be able to withstand a surprise from one of your opponents. Sure and that's exactly what did happen. Yukon a lot of momentum but there was two two obstacles really obstacle number one Edwards had soaked up a whole bunch of votes that you needed in that early vote period and the early vote that you never get back and I. There was a lot of a lot of bitter voters who wanted to take those votes back and revote them. That was that was Pretty important But we also had a in the twenty nine Dave Oh period were times when we had a much larger lead and we were just aggressively banking those votes again to create a position. Where kind of you as you get towards election day you have to win by twenty points rather than five points right and it seems to be in this race if you're not Bernie Sanders. There is more pressure. He's got pressure on election day but everybody else probably has even more pressure correct. Yep and the other the other real misunder really misunderstood thing and and really By the pollsters so a lot of what was done. If you go back and look at the polls from twenty sixteen you'll see that they had sanders way closer if not winning in almost all the polls leading up and They also over stated. In a lot of cases President Obama's vote and the reason is very simply this The the declined to state voters are just incredibly hard to turn out for these Democratic primaries. And so if you're looking at the slice just kind of theoretically it looks like he's GonNa be much harder than it always ends up being. It probably ended up being something like maybe fifteen percent and declined to states now or the second largest group here in California right after they are they way our pass Republicans. Yeah they they traditionally the the challenge with them is. They're traditionally much harder turn out for primaries than for generals right and they can't just show up on election day. Can they have to fill out a form prior they can? They can now so that they changed. Okay that was a good change. Okay yes yeah but to to give you a sense of how that's working They actually even this time. The all the different county registrar's out postcard saying hey. Do you want a ballot for In remember you can't vote in the Republican primary. Their party rules used to be able to but Forbid that so you really. You're only viable choices. Democrat unless you want to go some minor party and so they sent out postcards but they only got five percent returns. Is that right? Yes and so. Roughly and so e e e is that something that a good campaign that was on. The ball should've should've juice. Those numbers up significant absolutely but they just. The campaigns were active at that point. So those would people who would have been mailed a ballot for the primary so they can still show up on my vote down but the numbers suggest that it may not be as large number. That's interesting and also if you if you talk someone doing action like that you know this better than anyone once you get them to do the action the action getting the second action is just one hundred times easier right. No you've got to open that first door so let's talk about Delegates here which ultimately what this nominations about so California like every other state and territory. has a statewide threshold of fifty percent fifteen percent so there's a set of statewide delegates that you're only eligible for if you pass fifteen Not really asking you to play like pundits as but but just looking at where the races and the math and number of candidates. What do you think would be a safe assumption? About how many candidates past that fifteen percent threshold and then would be dividing up the statewide delegates? I think it's probably more than people think. Just because I do believe that Bernie Sanders may have a ceiling and his ceiling may be in the twenty five to thirty range of. Es Ceiling Save forty percent would be more challenging right. He could get all the statewide delegates with that. The trick to this and we don't know none of our crystal balls have been working so while recently but let's imagine scenario where Joe Biden Win South Carolina. Just kind of is coming back. I mean there's so much so many momentum things that are happening there's this big debate coming up in in Nevada. There's Vada Caucasus. There's a lot of huge momentum things that will really kind of shift things around. I think pretty dramatically in the meantime inches. It's frankly I think the LE unknowable. Right right so sounds like that is the important question. What what is Sandra ceiling because if it is lower Twenty to thirty. Then he probably is gonNA see some other candidates past fifteen if it were to get into the mid thirties. It's not impossible to do the math. Where like four five people twelve fourteen and and then of course like every other state I WANNA talk about Texas which you also ran in in two thousand and eight Which offers delegates at the local level the state Senate district but here in California CD which about California is a fairly healthy number of odd della districts Meaning five for seven and in certain scenarios. That's a way to really you know if you can figure out a way to steal some delegates there you get ten or fifteen delegates of California in matters so if you're running You have run successful presidential campaigns here so if you're running this campaign now how does that factor into strategy? I mean is this really a CD by by CD campaign and reality right now? It should I mean and the CDs in California Also they're they're almost worlds unto themselves and so just to illustrate the point the two seven delegate CDs our Nancy Pelosi's number twelve barbara lease thirteen and those are seven delegate. Any fuse think about those is like the the number gets you could pick up from doing well. In most districts would make up the lead that Pete. Buddha judge has right now Ashley Jason Those two CDs Right. So what types of things because of the campaigns will obviously there may be a CD where they're six and all the campaigns. Say you know what there's going to be three of US viable probably so raw. GonNa get to rarely. Does it happen that neatly? But then there's others where you say. There clearly is the ability for us. Either in an even one to maybe do so well we could pick up an extra one or an odd one. So what are the types of things that you might do in those CDs with more intensity than you would in other parts of the state the interesting thing about a lot of the ways CDs break to is they especially in southern California? There's a lot of low CDs that have very large Tina populations or African American populations And and so it allows you to yes. You need to go. Cd by CD but you can also go community by community reaching a broader scope but having greater impact in the CD's are important and that was a huge part of of the Hillary Clinton campaign. You know eight which was just really focused on Latinos and Latinos Latinas specifically And you know yeah I think it made. It made a huge difference on some of those but so you have the ability in California which is Kinda cool of going broadly but in a way that creates intense focus in and actually kind of intense results that benefit. You tremendously right right. So let's talk about Texas for minute. And just because we're talking about Latinas and Latinos where I think you implied that strategy brilliantly and then we'll come back to California so Texas now annoyed I will say there was kind of a caucus and primary process. You guys won the primary we won the caucus we ended up netting. I think a few more delegates pleaded I think what's fascinating is. We almost overlooked Texas. Which is a massive state which is also on Super Tuesday What is different about running a presidential primary campaign in Texas versus California or is it largely the same in terms of execution? What's different is the the early voting different who I I loved about Texas and I'll never forget his they forever have had these massive in person voting centres and so allied these and was different from county county but a lot of these counties would have situations where they would they would pull up. Essentially voting than mobile voting. They pull up in front of a place where people actually want like a Walmart and and that would be the voting centre for the weekend. And so what you could do is you could do these just massive rallies right near the vote centers you had to be like a thousand feet away or wherever it was and and you could really just get people coalesce them there and then give them to vote and that was a beautiful thing. You guys did a brilliant job of that particular in West and South Texas. You just drove up massive margins but but I mean there's a way to do it in that still exist which is just a wonderful Texas thing The the caucuses Would you guys did? There was just absolutely brilliant in in that that required the sort of You know feel game that that you had there was unparalleled. So how do you look at Texas vis-a-vis? This question of can how many candidates will be viable statewide to sanders in your view. Have a similar ceiling there What's your view of Texas? I think it's very similar to California. Which is if he has a ceiling. a part of. What's what's so crazy about this race. Is it kind of feels? Like the the only reason I can analogize it to his eighty-eight where at this point going Super Tuesday. We remember Super Tuesday was the the big southern strategy so didn't have Californian some of the other states are in now but going Super Tuesday. You had who'd you have your Jackson Gephardt Dukakis Simon in who am I leave or in Gore so in this incredibly splintered thing and what what Dukakis was able to do as well remember was he he actually picked off a whole bunch of CD's that kind of overlap different media markets in in very brilliant way but but it was the same sort of splintered type thing. We're seeing today. I think I I think it's depend upon. How kind of on splintered things get in the next two weeks? I if if some of the more minor candidate start falling off the cliff Vote wise you know that that there's just really to other people or maybe three other people because you just can't do the math otherwise right. While the question is coming out of California Texas exit to an arrest of Super Tuesday. If you have Bloomberg and Buddha judge and Biden enclosure jar still moving on to March tenth and March Seventeenth Big States Michigan Missouri Arizona Florida Sanders could get the plurality of delegates with a ceiling of thirty correct. He could he very well. Good Yeah Fascinating we. We've started to see candidates. Come to California You've got you mentioned the Nevada debate than the caucuses then South Carolina and that we always one of the most intense weeks in presidential politics but you have California and Texas looming not to mention other states. So how important is it? I mean so. Let's just say that week between Nevada and South Carolina which is eastern time zone. You're in South Carolina. But how important is it to be in the ground out here? You know a day or two. Do you think leading into you. Know Election Day Morton I think the sleep for these candidates I mean you you you really do move people through mass media in California. And if you can't afford it you can otherwise get it because the fighting. California's California was so out of the K- kind of consideration for so many years. I mean you have to historically you have to go back to sixty four and sixty right the last two major primaries and then you have to fast forward all the way to thousand Californians is always kind of felt like a little bit left out of the presidential primary process and so I just think there's a hunger here that you can actually tap into an end is not just a hunger for hearing from the candidates a hunger for consuming news and hearing everything about this right. So I'm curious You've been responsible for a lot of can't campaigns here in California candidate campaigns bowel campaigns Talk a little bit about what you're seeing from Bloomberg. So let's stipulate that there is no precedent for this. I think there's a report today that he is now spent more money on Media that we CAN TRACK THAN BARACK. Obama did in his two thousand twelve reelection campaign. So no one's ever spent this amount of money but you have seen folks spent a lot of money in California And what's your assessment? It seems to me you mentioned five hours a week but I still think even with that. If you're spending a data level it's just harder you know we see some states where Bloomberg's moved up you know into the twenty s Smaller States California. Just even if you're spending five million. It's hard to really move. So what's your assessment of? What do you think his possibilities are? Here he's still got another couple of weeks of spending I mean. Do you think it's possible? He could push into the twenty S. I think everything's possible at this point I really do. And I just wouldn't rule anything out and I think his fate though is yes. It's tied to what he can do to communicate with voters in in spending a lot of money but I think it's also tied on the to the fate and the and the rise of the downfall of his opponents. Right right now. He's less dependent. I mean he. He has more dependencies. I think on his trajectory than others so talk about on election night. When you're I'm sure Going to be diving deep into the numbers is returns. Come in Whether it's by CD or or Media Market County talk about a few places where you're going to be super interested to see what happens and why. I mean the first thing you always wanted now in let me just kind of backup and say there's there's two there's two ways to win. A city wide race in California and that have traditionally worked one is to run up remarkably big numbers in the bay area in the I eighty corridor and then essentially break even down south down south and because it California really does functions two very distinct states and the other way is to break even but not lose not get crushed in the bay area. But do but you'll you'll never run up the same margins in southern California. You can run up in northern California but there are more voters especially a presidential race than there isn't a statewide race. Run up some decent margins down there and and that's a way to win and so you you if you're Bernie Sanders People. You're looking at the margins. You have coming out of the Bay Area. You know are you. Are you running the table? Any of your not running the table in the bay area. I think you've got some stuff to worry about Because that's that's the way he succeeds. Tremendously If your another candidate that's on the ascent I think you're GonNa Kinda look at because I think the voters are a lot more movable in southern California. You're looking at how you doing in the Los Angeles area Washington media market which is of course Riverside Orange Ventura La County and seamer India. Now and he actually goes all the way up into Kern massive massive part the state. And if you if you are running up decent respectable numbers they are Say for instance if your Bloomberg you can have a really good night and wire voters in the southern part of the state more movable than the northern and used to be speaking about a Democratic primary. I'm Tara any election anywhere. It's just. It's really a cultural thing. Folks in northern California a lot more tuned in is always been true into politics. You can stand in line at your coffee shop and getting schmoozing with people. And they'll tell you why they're upset about their local supervisor or they and they can tell you who their congressperson is and their state REP Cetera et Cetera in southern California. You're lucky if you can get them to tell you. One of the senators the president of the United States and the governor. It's just a different. There's different industries dominate down. Their people just aren't as interested in so There's usually a lot more flexibility right. So you mentioned Bloomberg is is a candidate with potential down south. Who Do you think are the biggest threats to Bernie Sanders probably not to win the bay area but keep his margins down? I think you'd have to say people to judge I think clearly the question of Biden is his viability if he remains viable. I think is a huge threat. And if he doesn't I think you have to look at what tapping the Bloomberg right right. What's your sense on turnout here? I whether that's a number or common to thermometer superstrong okay and I guess I'd say some there are some myths about it. Yeah and I ran numbers and projections For you here I'm so. Let's talk about what happened last time. Last time There was a sixty two percent turnout on. This isn't sixteen in Sixteen and in eighteen. Point five percent turnout for declined to states I'm thinking there's GonNa be a little bit higher. Probably more like sixty five in twenty but the ultimate pie in remember when things. It's tricky about about turnout. Models and Democratic presidential primary is Democrats. That's the only place. Vote and the vote with Gusto and declined to states. They have to do this. Extra step and they also just aren't historically great primary voters so if there's a place where if you're like Bernie Sanders or Bloomberg where you could actually move. Numbers would be there. And I don't I don't have enough knowing what they're doing but there's a lot of potential there because you could move that vote. I think by like ten percent right so as it relates to lessons we can learn how to California and I guess you know if you want include Texas in is given your experience there Now obviously there's a lot of other states voted on March third. But you know then we move into You Know Missouri North Carolina and other stay. You have presidential experience in Arizona Florida Illinois Ohio when we look at Maybe it's you know declined to state. That's the term here in California. You know other states use other terms like independent or unaffiliated their vote share and turnout performance in the African American community. Latino Asian community like. Do you think that you'll be able to draw a pretty direct line? From what happens here. Demographical in March third to those other states or or. Should we be careful about doing that? I think with some groups of voters. Yes which is I think with them. I think. Some correlation between what you can do with the Latino vote in California and elsewhere in also with the African American vote But the the independent voters in California are I think a different flavor Kind of wrap your brain around that. The largest percentage Recently kind of of independent voters in the states. His generally being in the bay area like San Francisco Alameda Contra et Cetera et CETERA. Aids is kind of not what you think of when you think of independent voters they tend to be essentially best descriptions they tend to be socially very liberal. I if not progressive but fiscally a little bit more conservative but it. It's not in anti-tax tax kind of fiscal flavor. It's it's more of a just show me. You're being smart with my money right so there'll be some important lessons. We can learn how to what might happen in future primaries here particularly the released seems like some of the minority voting groups. Yep but less on independence So what will happen? Will we know on election night here in California? Both who's won the raw vote and delegate total or are we going to have to wait a while for that never okay. Unless it's a blow out right there is. I mean it's like I just cracked me up. Every last number of election cycles everyone wants to say one. Hundred percent of the voting is in there. Still millions of votes counted and It's just what happens is I mean. There's there's two things A lot of people just are showing up with vote by mail ballots to their to their selection election and just dropping him off it. It's kind of funny. California's are so used to either. There's a certain group of ours who had just use the vote by mail and they vote by mail and they sit down the computers due to the weekends. And then there's a group of voters who always enjoyed voting person. But now we're getting ballots by mail. But they actually like to take their kids. Have the experience of going to the polling places huge mattress in his law. Also a huge amount of provisional ballots and the numbers are staggering compared to other states. And why is that just size of the state size of the State People also there's people move around a lot and California's you now and so there's just a lot of people who show up and they provide he registered for the registered somewhere else in California and and thanks to the all. The rules were changed after the two thousand election. Provisional Voting He. You know you you really can make it happen right right. So do you think that when you reflect on where California is now? It's clearly gonNA play? We think anyway a pretty significant role. Maybe thinning the field. Maybe giving somebody a big delegate ye yield like a Bernie Sanders if not that could impact the race but being on the same day as the rest of the states as big as California is I mean do you think the descended up As it was intended using maybe it would have been better to go a couple of weeks later. What's your view of And it's challenging because we've talked candidates Nevada there in South Carolina. They've got to go to Texas. They got to go to Alabama California's clearly the magnet on that day but still just three days after South Carolina. I'm just curious how you assess You know where it landed date was I is going. Turn out to be a great thing for California. I just think it's going to take a few cycles for to really shake out. And what's different is that it's changed permanently now so the last couple times when we've played around with moving it it's just been a a one off type thing and it's now permanently moved. I just think these these elections It always takes it. You know the dynamic of having a few cycles and see how things really go and people will look back and figure it out and I. I'm a California exception list so I think we should have a much bigger voice in that we've had and for goodness sakes. I mean the last half the last century were eight presidents. Roughly speaking in we two of them came from California and a lot of the big change. Things come from California so California does deserve a bigger voice. I think we'll get one right. Actually it was interesting to me is just given the fact that you know there is a scenario. I it sounds like you believe sanders. Ceiling may a little too low to accomplish but you know. Sanders could basically secure the plurality delegate lead if he were to net one hundred delegates. Outta so for the rest of the candidates you need to prevent that and I. I think if anything California should be getting more time and money than it is just because I think it's got an ounce so Lasting as you you mentioned you know presidents coming from California. You were You have a long history with Kamala Harris helping her win different elections throughout the state. We're helping her presidential race with a little bit of time and space any observation on I guess specifically Kamla who entered with such. I think promised strength had a moment of you know. I think in that debate where she had the exchange with Biden where it looked like she made take off but also you had booker and Andrew Yang and all the all the candidates of diversity You know not left. And we're left with all white candidates Mostly men maybe too soon but any observations on why that was I think. Democratic voters are so desperate to be trumped. They just don't want to kind of go out of their comfort zone and and take any risks and I think they saw all those candidates is even even if they were just a slight risk in the and they're just kind of like. Let's just be really safe and get this writing. Even so this time will put aside are wanting to fall in love with someone to just making sure get it right and I think that that doomed. Lada candidacies yeah so you fast? Anka's obviously I hope more than maybe anything in my life that one of these candidates ends up beating trump. But you know falling in love is how you create excitement enthusiasm and you know it's hard. It's hard to paint by numbers in these things. I know you did it. Well it's hard Why Smith thank you for your time. Today I think Folks need to get smart about California and Texas And hopefully begin to spend time with media market maps and Congressional district delegate allocations Because there's different ways this race could fall actually any way of falls so if if somebody were to come out of here with a big net They probably get a huge Leg Up in terms of the nomination Nf basically we just split the delegates. I think it probably means You know the rest of March gets even more interesting And so your view right now and I'll just ask so. Is you think that it's more likely than not the California's not going to end up. Where one candidate and I think at this point we all think he'd probably be sanders nets such a large amount of delegates that they gain that kind of lead that it's hard to give up. You think things probably are a little more distributed. I think that with with one caveat caveat if the race remains a splintered is is it. Is We sit here speaking today. The opposite could happen. Which is he enters comes out with massive delegate lead right which you may never give up smash a question just as a longtime democratic strategist and and someone who cares deeply about the party? Do you have a view on if we don't have a candidate who reaches the majority pledged delegate threshold because of splintering? But someone is the plurality leader. Do you think that person should be our nominee or do you think we should be head to the convention? I think the way we decide these things by going to conventions ends in the process. So I it's it's easy to get angry at the process but that's what we have. I think the other scenario might be the other candidates who fall short decide that they're going to throw their support to the pledged. Delegates Plurality Leah writes. We've avoided convention fight but I think California's the most important Factor in this question because if if the delegates here get relatively evenly distributed. It's hard to see how someone gets a majority. I agree so I think there's not enough. Focus on that so If somebody you know nets a lot out of here that person may have a fighting chance to get the majority. They certainly would have a fighting. Chance to be plurality delegate leader but if things are spread relatively evenly You know it seems like we`re. It's it's hard to do. The math. Particularly in that scenario would mean probably multiple people did well enough on Super Tuesday to keep going on Right and to your point about eighty-eight eventually that thinned-out And it was really Jackson into caucus at the end but if we have four candidates going deep into March and deepened April with Atlantic. It's hard to see I get to majority and the one thing that's changed that that is also a lot you know that kind of doesn't get baked into people's thinking is back in the say eighty eight. Everyone was still hewing to the You know the the federal limits and so the it was much easier to rhyme money and that's out the window now so people campaign run out money By large in so I just think all these these things will go on much longer for that reason as well well let me ask you last question then so right so historically people get out when they run out of money do you think this time there may be some people who have the ability to go on financially or organizationally but they're delegated path. Just get so narrow that they decide for the good of the part of the get out that would be counter to political behavior. What's your view of that? I tend to think the optimistic Beth human nature and hope that they'll run for the greater. Good Yeah I mean because my view on this is once it's clear we're going to have a nominee You know if not in numbers in reality you know. We got trump looming out there. Hey man with more money than we've ever seen before more data and digital sophistication and someone who's more obsessed with winning reelection in any president maybe put together so we got to get to the main event here. Can't agree more. Ace Matt Thank you. Thank you great honor. Well hopefully you got from the conversation as Smith. How different the California primary is from Really the rest of the country the complexity how expensive it is to run a campaign. You know the delegates situation the fact that you're not just dealing with one state but at least two states really in terms of of political behavior so California is going to be critical The question is is. Is it something that gives somebody the kind of delegate yield they need to seize if not an impenetrable fortify delegate lead or is it going to be something that gets more evenly distributed Which means The Ray certainly will continue if not till Milwaukee deep into the calendar. So hopefully you learn something about California and Texas a place where. He has also led a successful presidential primary campaigns.

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