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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Corona virus and we have a couple updates for you the president earlier announced that he is assigned vice president Mike pence to leave the U. S. response to the corona virus outbreak also we learn from some of the health officials who were at the White House briefing this was one quote from the CDC the trajectory of what we're looking at in regards to corona virus is very uncertain and we also learned the prospect of a real vaccine illegitimate back seem for corona virus is about a year to a year and a half away one of the big breaking stories this evening is from The Washington Post and they are reporting that the first U. S. coronavirus case of unknown origin has been confirmed in northern California a sign that the virus may be spreading in a local area and finally this is some breaking news the United States and South Korea have indefinitely postponed joint military drills as corona virus cases in South Korea have now soared to almost sixteen hundred a joining us on the hotline right now to talk more about the global impact of the corona virus outbreak is USF muma college of business professor Dr Donna Davis doctor how are you I'm well how are you good thank you so much for joining us we really appreciate itself obviously one thing that Americans have been paying close attention to over the past few days is the stock market and how are you know almost down two thousand points over the past two days down just a little bit today but but what that obviously goes to is the disruption that the corona viruses causing in businesses all across the world talk to us a little bit about how a potential pandemic like this impact supply chains well this particular pandemic is having a different effect than maybe previous want to pad because it is originating and the epicenter is in China and that China is central to so many companies supply chains whether we're getting direct finished goods you know coming from China into a country like into the United States or raw materials or components that go into our manufacturing either again directly coming into factories in United States or indirectly by maybe being sold in two countries in Europe or South America or Mexico or somewhere else in the world and then coming into the country and so it's a ripple effect it's been weeks now since we knew about the coronavirus insects out there were quarantines and factory shutdowns and China but it's taken that long now for companies that are further down the supply chain closer to end consumers to actually start recording out here's the impact on our expected earnings and and so now the stock market is just kind of catching up to that news we're talking to USF muma college of business professor Dr Donna Davis about the impact of the corona virus on market supply chains and businesses across the world on a scale of one to ten at the moments where react in terms of how much this infectious disease is impacting businesses and supply chains well the scale of one to ten it's a it's a ten in terms of its an absolute certainty that's affecting the supply chain in terms of the severity right how much is this but affecting supply chains we were probably around about four or five okay right now and if the so here's the issue that I didn't hear anybody talking about yet so what happened is as soon as trying to realize how bad this was they started quarantining cities and telling workers stay home they are slowly beginning now to allow workers to return where they have enough workers to return so the question is as China loosens the quarantines in their cities and allow people to move about more freely what's going to happen is the virus going to be abated and it looks like now it's be it is an abatement if you listen to the president's comments then you heard him talk about how it's better than it was when it first started which is very true is significantly lower in terms of new cases being reported on a daily basis compared to when it first started but everybody's been under quarantine so once those quarantines are begin begin to be lifted is it going to be okay or is it going to kind of come back with a vengeance and so it could get a whole lot worse or it could be fine and we just it's the uncertainty that's creating the chaos in the supply chains and then the stock markets of supply chains in stock markets do not deal well with uncertainty and so I think once we know more things will calm down and and what about the spread that we've seen in a country like South Korea or in Italy in Japan as that continues and it looks like at least for the immediate future it's likely going to continue will learn of more cases in these countries how does that begin to impact things as it spreads to more and more countries which is what's happening right now and then as you say and not South Korea and Japan and Italy where we do have pretty significant trading partner relationships the way maybe we may end up seeing some of the the quarantines that we've seen in place in China is that so it is it's only going to as it spread globally it's going to continue to have impacts on some pretty serious industries one of the first hardest hit is tourism right and so travel and tourism is is is seriously and down down and of course anything related to that like the airlines are down and so they got another piece of that ripple effect is that because China is calling for less oil the price of oil is down and therefore that's affecting you know global oil markets as well so again it's a it's hard to see how far it will ripple out until you we get a better handle on how serious is going to be in some of the other countries what's really interesting is it feels like over the past couple years the American public has more more wanted to pull back a bit from the rest of the world in a variety of different ways and what the S. corona virus issue is really bringing to light is how interconnected we are absolutely and it's it up of course but at U. S. UP I teach us apply to management and so I say it is hard to think of a single product that we use in our daily lives that is a result of a global supply chain you know there are going to be it's going to be touched by more than one country even if you think of a hand slaughter you know what where did that your income from where does where those animals you know grow outward at those knitting needles come from so it's really difficult to think of anything that isn't already global is so yes that you know and and maybe there are some situations where we should think from the standpoint of should we say some of those industries really have to we have to continue to support them right so that that we you know keep them strong in the in the United States and so there's a good balance there U. S. asked muma college of business professor Dr Donna Davis Dr we really appreciate joining the show this evening thank you so much sure